Win Rate Spread Analysis
Data from 2026-07-10 15:15 UTC, seed 7
Pooled full-clear (9 starters)
- Mean: 1.1%, stdev: 2.9%, spread: 8.8%
Starter outliers (|z| > 1)
- The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling): 8.8% (z=+2.64)
Per-battle win-rate stdev (9 starters pooled)
| Battle |
Mean |
Stdev |
Spread |
| MegaCorp 2 |
30.0% |
44.7% |
100.0% |
| MegaCorp 1 |
57.9% |
35.0% |
100.0% |
| Family 2 |
70.5% |
31.7% |
84.8% |
| Family Boss |
34.9% |
25.1% |
72.4% |
| MidTier 2 |
38.4% |
23.1% |
74.5% |
| MidTier Boss |
29.4% |
22.0% |
57.1% |
| MidTier 1 |
79.1% |
17.1% |
47.1% |
| Family 1 |
95.8% |
10.3% |
31.2% |
| MegaCorp Boss |
100.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Within-sector stdev outliers (top 10)
| Sector |
Battle |
Mean |
Stdev |
Spread |
| ai |
MegaCorp 1 |
45.8% |
43.9% |
87.5% |
| ai |
MegaCorp 2 |
75.0% |
35.4% |
50.0% |
| energy |
MegaCorp 1 |
70.0% |
26.5% |
50.0% |
| energy |
MidTier Boss |
37.0% |
25.5% |
48.8% |
| ai |
Family Boss |
46.6% |
24.7% |
49.3% |
| healthcare |
MidTier 2 |
16.7% |
23.5% |
33.3% |
| healthcare |
Family 2 |
33.2% |
22.9% |
45.2% |
| ai |
MidTier Boss |
31.5% |
16.5% |
29.6% |
| healthcare |
Family 1 |
87.5% |
16.3% |
30.0% |
| ai |
Family 2 |
83.3% |
16.1% |
30.0% |
Event choice clear-rate spread (greedy AI exposure)
- 25 choices with n≥20: mean 3.8%, stdev 5.0%
Event choice outliers
- The Networking Gala → Hit the Open Bar: 20.0% (n=25, z=+3.23)
- The Networking Gala → Hit the Open Bar: 11.6% (n=43, z=+1.56)
- The Model Training Run → Scrape the Whole Internet: 9.1% (n=33, z=+1.05)
- The Model Training Run → Scrape the Whole Internet: 9.1% (n=33, z=+1.05)
Sector baselines
| Sector |
Clear rate |
| healthcare |
0.0% |
| energy |
0.0% |
| ai |
3.3% |