Starter x Battle Progression Win-Rate Matrix
Generated: 2026-07-10 15:15 UTC. Source: reports\data\runs.ndjson (run python3 scripts/generate_sim_reports.py to refresh the sim, then python3 scripts/analyze_progression_matrix.py to rebuild this report).
Each cell is the win rate for that specific battle, conditional on reaching it (same convention as the gold-standard run report's fight-1/fight-2 win rates) -- not a cumulative survival curve. A blank cell means the sample never reached that battle.
| Starter | Family 1 | Family 2 | Family Boss | MidTier 1 | MidTier 2 | MidTier Boss | MegaCorp 1 | MegaCorp 2 | MegaCorp Boss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ai — The Hacker (control/defensive) | 100% | 90% | 44% | 91% | 55% | 12% | 50% | 100% | 100% |
| Ai — The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) | 100% | 95% | 72% | 93% | 74% | 42% | 88% | 50% | 100% |
| Ai — The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) | 100% | 65% | 23% | 75% | 56% | 40% | 0% | — | — |
| Energy — The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) | 100% | 98% | 44% | 97% | 33% | 46% | 60% | 0% | — |
| Energy — The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) | 100% | 92% | 51% | 92% | 34% | 8% | 100% | 0% | — |
| Energy — The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) | 100% | 95% | 59% | 76% | 21% | 57% | 50% | 0% | — |
| Healthcare — The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) | 95% | 58% | 11% | 60% | 33% | 0% | — | — | — |
| Healthcare — The Nurse (balanced/sustain) | 99% | 29% | 9% | 50% | 0% | — | — | — | — |
| Healthcare — The Plague Doctor (bleed) | 69% | 13% | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Reach rate (% of trials still alive at that battle)
Context for the table above: conditional win rate stays informative even as the surviving sample shrinks tier over tier, but it's easy to misread a high conditional win rate at MegaCorp Boss as "this fight is easy" when actually few runs ever get there. This second table shows what fraction of trials reached each battle at all.
| Starter | Family 1 | Family 2 | Family Boss | MidTier 1 | MidTier 2 | MidTier Boss | MegaCorp 1 | MegaCorp 2 | MegaCorp Boss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ai — The Hacker (control/defensive) | 100% | 100% | 90% | 40% | 36% | 20% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Ai — The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) | 100% | 100% | 95% | 69% | 64% | 48% | 20% | 18% | 9% |
| Ai — The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) | 100% | 100% | 65% | 15% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Energy — The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) | 100% | 100% | 98% | 42% | 41% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 0% |
| Energy — The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) | 100% | 100% | 92% | 48% | 44% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Energy — The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) | 100% | 100% | 95% | 56% | 42% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 0% |
| Healthcare — The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) | 100% | 95% | 55% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Healthcare — The Nurse (balanced/sustain) | 100% | 99% | 29% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Healthcare — The Plague Doctor (bleed) | 100% | 69% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Average HP lost per battle (HP lost/entering max HP, % of max HP)
HP carries over within a tier (full heal only happens at tier entry), so this is the HP each starter actually burns in that specific fight (entering HP minus post-fight HP) -- distinct from the entering-HP level itself, which reflects accumulated chip damage from earlier fights in the tier. A high HP-lost number means the fight itself is costly even when won; that cost then compounds into the next fight's entering HP. Averaged only over trials that reached that battle (dead runs don't contribute to later cells).
| Starter | Family 1 | Family 2 | Family Boss | MidTier 1 | MidTier 2 | MidTier Boss | MegaCorp 1 | MegaCorp 2 | MegaCorp Boss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ai — The Hacker (control/defensive) | 8/56 (14%) | 17/59 (29%) | 31/64 (49%) | 33/64 (51%) | 23/67 (34%) | 31/74 (42%) | 46/76 (60%) | 16/76 (21%) | 18/76 (24%) |
| Ai — The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) | 7/80 (9%) | 20/83 (25%) | 30/87 (34%) | 26/88 (30%) | 34/90 (38%) | 37/95 (39%) | 48/95 (50%) | 28/98 (28%) | 32/103 (31%) |
| Ai — The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) | 21/68 (31%) | 33/72 (46%) | 28/78 (36%) | 47/77 (61%) | 28/80 (35%) | 28/84 (33%) | 78/78 (100%) | — | — |
| Energy — The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) | 31/80 (39%) | 12/84 (15%) | 38/88 (43%) | 59/89 (67%) | 30/94 (31%) | 20/101 (20%) | 72/102 (71%) | 53/107 (49%) | — |
| Energy — The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) | 32/92 (35%) | 12/93 (13%) | 47/96 (49%) | 61/97 (63%) | 35/99 (36%) | 22/103 (21%) | 120/122 (98%) | 2/122 (2%) | — |
| Energy — The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) | 25/76 (33%) | 20/78 (25%) | 28/81 (35%) | 59/80 (74%) | 25/83 (31%) | 14/95 (15%) | 84/100 (84%) | 36/105 (35%) | — |
| Healthcare — The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) | 39/70 (56%) | 26/71 (37%) | 17/74 (23%) | 68/77 (89%) | 21/83 (25%) | 1/90 (1%) | — | — | — |
| Healthcare — The Nurse (balanced/sustain) | 51/80 (64%) | 26/84 (31%) | 35/89 (39%) | 76/85 (89%) | 18/80 (22%) | — | — | — | — |
| Healthcare — The Plague Doctor (bleed) | 69/80 (86%) | 18/83 (21%) | 17/86 (20%) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Spread in HP lost across starters, by battle
For each battle: how far apart is the highest-HP-lost-% starter from the lowest, (a) across every starter in every sector, and (b) at worst within a single sector (i.e. the widest gap between two sector-mates on the same fight). A battle can split the whole roster evenly while still being lopsided within a sector, or vice versa -- the two columns disambiguate that. Sorted by overall spread, widest first.
| Battle | Overall spread | Highest HP lost | Lowest HP lost | Worst within-sector spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family 1 | 77% pts | Healthcare — The Plague Doctor (bleed) (86%) | Ai — The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) (9%) | 30% pts in Healthcare (The Plague Doctor (bleed) 86% vs The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) 56%) |
| MidTier 1 | 60% pts | Healthcare — The Nurse (balanced/sustain) (89%) | Ai — The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) (30%) | 31% pts in Ai (The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) 61% vs The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) 30%) |
| MegaCorp 1 | 50% pts | Ai — The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) (100%) | Ai — The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) (50%) | 50% pts in Ai (The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) 100% vs The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) 50%) |
| MegaCorp 2 | 48% pts | Energy — The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) (49%) | Energy — The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) (2%) | 48% pts in Energy (The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) 49% vs The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) 2%) |
| MidTier Boss | 41% pts | Ai — The Hacker (control/defensive) (42%) | Healthcare — The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) (1%) | 10% pts in Ai (The Hacker (control/defensive) 42% vs The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) 33%) |
| Family 2 | 33% pts | Ai — The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) (46%) | Energy — The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) (13%) | 21% pts in Ai (The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) 46% vs The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) 25%) |
| Family Boss | 29% pts | Ai — The Hacker (control/defensive) (49%) | Healthcare — The Plague Doctor (bleed) (20%) | 19% pts in Healthcare (The Nurse (balanced/sustain) 39% vs The Plague Doctor (bleed) 20%) |
| MidTier 2 | 15% pts | Ai — The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) (38%) | Healthcare — The Nurse (balanced/sustain) (22%) | 5% pts in Energy (The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) 36% vs The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) 31%) |
| MegaCorp Boss | 7% pts | Ai — The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) (31%) | Ai — The Hacker (control/defensive) (24%) | 7% pts in Ai (The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) 31% vs The Hacker (control/defensive) 24%) |
Reproducing
python3 scripts/generate_sim_reports.py # writes reports/data/runs.ndjson
python3 scripts/analyze_progression_matrix.py