Phase 5: Multi-Sector Difficulty Analysis
Generated: July 01, 2026. Run python3 scripts/analyze_difficulty.py --sector all --markdown to refresh.
Methodology
Three sectors (Healthcare, Energy, AI) analyzed with the same two lenses:
| Lens |
Player deck |
Enemies fought |
Question answered |
| Starter |
Day-0 starter_styles/ |
All enemies (cross-product) |
Is Family tier fair? Any pacing bugs? |
| Tier-entry built |
Starter + shop/reward sketch, 3 build variants |
Own tier only |
Can a built deck clear this tier — and how much does it depend on luck? |
Healing: applied in ceiling analysis only (apply_heals=True); disabled in regression harness to avoid mutual-sustain stalls when enemies also heal.
Status effects (ceiling): Bleed/Combustion end-of-turn ticks, Glitch heal reduction + decay, energy denial, bleed applied to opponent correctly.
Built decks — 3 variants per matchup (deck_scenarios.build_tier_entry_player_variants), replacing the old single hand-picked sketch:
| Variant |
Deck |
Totem |
Models |
| floor |
starter, unmodified |
none |
no useful reward/totem drawn all run |
| median |
RewardPool-derived sketch |
sampled from the full 17-totem catalog via the live RewardUI.GetRarityWeights rarity curve, at the battle/boss count reached by that tier |
typical run |
| ceiling |
same sketch |
sampled from the Rare pool |
lucky totem draw, and capital that can afford it (economy_model.can_afford) |
Economy finding: capital is not the binding constraint past Family tier — even a conservative 30%-of-capital discretionary budget at MidTier/MegaCorp entry affords a worst-case-priced Rare shop item (economy_model.py). Totem/reward RNG, not gold, drives the build-variant spread below.
Fragile matchups: flagged where the floor variant loses badly in ceiling combat mode but the median or ceiling variant is healthy (win-rate swing ≥ 35pp) — i.e. clearing the tier hinges on drawing a specific totem rather than on deck-building skill.
Still not modeled: card upgrades, map pathing (branching/optional nodes, healthcare/lounge spend), forced discard, premium bleed enemy heal loop.
Simulator: combat_sim.py (80 trials, seed 42). Totem sampling: seeded RNG (deck_scenarios._VARIANT_SAMPLE_SEED) for reproducible reports.
Healthcare
Enemies: 13 | Starters: 3 | Starter matchups: 78 | Built matchups: 180
Tier summary — starter deck (avg battle length)
| Tier |
Floor avg |
Ceiling avg |
| Family |
6.0 |
5.3 |
| MegaCorp |
7.2 |
8.6 |
| MidTier |
7.9 |
5.7 |
Starter verdict summary
| Verdict |
Count |
| healthy |
13 |
| expected_loss |
52 |
| investigate |
3 |
| other |
10 |
Starter — investigate
| Enemy |
Tier |
Boss |
Player |
Mode |
Win% |
Turns |
Detail |
| Mom & Pop (Owners) |
Family |
Y |
The Nurse (balanced/sustain) |
floor |
0% |
6.0 |
starter_floor_family |
| Mom & Pop (Owners) |
Family |
Y |
The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) |
floor |
0% |
6.8 |
starter_floor_family |
| Mom & Pop (Owners) |
Family |
Y |
The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
floor |
0% |
7.6 |
starter_floor_family |
Built deck — ceiling verdict summary (median variant)
| Verdict |
Count |
| healthy |
19 |
| gear_check |
2 |
| trivial |
9 |
Built deck — investigate (median variant)
| Tier |
Profile |
Enemy |
Player |
Win% |
Turns |
E_DPT |
P_DPT |
| (none) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Build-variant win-rate spread (ceiling combat, all tier-entry matchups)
Models reward/totem-draft luck: floor = no totem drawn, median = typical RewardPool-sampled totem at this tier's battle/boss count, ceiling = a Rare totem (capital-affordable past Family — see economy_model.py).
| Variant |
Avg win% |
Min win% |
Max win% |
| floor |
41% |
0% |
100% |
| median |
53% |
0% |
100% |
| ceiling |
65% |
0% |
100% |
Fragile matchups (tier clear depends on totem luck)
| Enemy |
Tier |
Player |
Floor win% |
Best variant |
Best win% |
Totem |
| The Regional CEO (The Heavy Hitter) |
MidTier |
The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
4% |
ceiling |
99% |
The Golden Handcuffs |
| Surgical Unit (SURG-X1) |
MegaCorp |
The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
0% |
ceiling |
71% |
The Actuarial Table |
| The Regional CEO (The Heavy Hitter) |
MidTier |
The Nurse (balanced/sustain) |
4% |
median |
65% |
Stock Options |
Tier-entry build recipes
| Tier |
Style |
HP bonus |
Add |
Remove |
| MidTier |
The Nurse |
+12 |
1×Mandatory Fun, 1×Hostile Takeover, 1×Layoffs, 1×Incomplete Form |
2×Bedside Manner, 1×Home Remedy |
| MidTier |
The Hustler |
+0 |
— |
1×Insurance |
| MidTier |
The Plague Doctor |
+12 |
1×Premium Hike, 1×Chronic Malady, 1×Layoffs, 1×Generic Rx |
2×Insurance, 1×Backroom Deal |
| MegaCorp |
The Nurse |
+40 |
1×Burnout Protocol, 1×Asset Liquidation, 1×Unchecked Math |
— |
| MegaCorp |
The Hustler |
+8 |
1×Layoffs |
1×FDA Filing |
| MegaCorp |
The Plague Doctor |
+40 |
1×Hemorrhagic Collapse, 1×Premium Bleed, 1×Mandatory Fun |
1×Backroom Deal |
Energy
Enemies: 13 | Starters: 3 | Starter matchups: 78 | Built matchups: 180
Tier summary — starter deck (avg battle length)
| Tier |
Floor avg |
Ceiling avg |
| Family |
10.0 |
7.9 |
| MegaCorp |
14.5 |
5.1 |
| MidTier |
12.6 |
8.1 |
Starter verdict summary
| Verdict |
Count |
| healthy |
22 |
| expected_loss |
42 |
| other |
14 |
Starter — investigate
| Enemy |
Tier |
Boss |
Player |
Mode |
Win% |
Turns |
Detail |
| (none) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Built deck — ceiling verdict summary (median variant)
| Verdict |
Count |
| healthy |
16 |
| gear_check |
2 |
| trivial |
4 |
| investigate |
5 |
| other |
3 |
Built deck — investigate (median variant)
| Tier |
Profile |
Enemy |
Player |
Win% |
Turns |
E_DPT |
P_DPT |
| MegaCorp |
defensive_grunt |
Repair Relay (RELAY-7) |
The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) |
0% |
4.6 |
22.7 |
19.3 |
| MegaCorp |
defensive_grunt |
Repair Relay (RELAY-7) |
The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) |
0% |
2.8 |
22.7 |
26.4 |
| MegaCorp |
defensive_elite |
Grid Controller (GRID-CTRL) |
The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) |
0% |
4.4 |
12.3 |
24.0 |
| MegaCorp |
defensive_elite |
Grid Controller (GRID-CTRL) |
The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) |
1% |
6.4 |
15.7 |
17.1 |
| MegaCorp |
defensive_grunt |
Repair Relay (RELAY-7) |
The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
22% |
4.8 |
19.9 |
26.9 |
Build-variant win-rate spread (ceiling combat, all tier-entry matchups)
Models reward/totem-draft luck: floor = no totem drawn, median = typical RewardPool-sampled totem at this tier's battle/boss count, ceiling = a Rare totem (capital-affordable past Family — see economy_model.py).
| Variant |
Avg win% |
Min win% |
Max win% |
| floor |
23% |
0% |
100% |
| median |
31% |
0% |
100% |
| ceiling |
45% |
0% |
100% |
Fragile matchups (tier clear depends on totem luck)
| Enemy |
Tier |
Player |
Floor win% |
Best variant |
Best win% |
Totem |
| Fuel Extractor (FUEL-3) |
MegaCorp |
The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
0% |
ceiling |
64% |
Neural Network Weight |
| Repair Relay (RELAY-7) |
MegaCorp |
The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
0% |
ceiling |
38% |
Neural Network Weight |
| The Grid Nexus (NEXUS-∞) |
MegaCorp |
The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
0% |
ceiling |
38% |
Neural Network Weight |
| Reactor Core (CORE-X1) |
MegaCorp |
The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
0% |
ceiling |
35% |
Neural Network Weight |
Tier-entry build recipes
| Tier |
Style |
HP bonus |
Add |
Remove |
| MidTier |
The Wildcatter |
+0 |
1×Power Surge, 1×Oil Slick, 1×Controlled Burn, 1×Drill Site |
1×Battery Pack, 1×Carbon Credits |
| MidTier |
The Grid Operator |
+12 |
1×Refinery, 1×Turbine, 1×Emergency Protocol, 1×Grid Shield |
1×Insulation, 1×Solar Subsidy |
| MidTier |
The Nuclear Engineer |
+8 |
1×Peaker Plant, 1×Heat Shield, 1×Overclock, 1×Power Surge |
1×Ground Wire, 1×Pipeline |
| MegaCorp |
The Wildcatter |
+8 |
1×Nuclear Meltdown, 1×Supernova, 1×Fracking Op |
1×Emergency Protocol |
| MegaCorp |
The Grid Operator |
+40 |
1×Fusion Reactor, 1×Infinite Energy, 1×Power Grid |
1×Transformer |
| MegaCorp |
The Nuclear Engineer |
+32 |
1×Reactor Core, 1×Fusion Reactor, 1×Supernova |
1×Mainframe Boost |
AI
Enemies: 13 | Starters: 3 | Starter matchups: 78 | Built matchups: 180
Tier summary — starter deck (avg battle length)
| Tier |
Floor avg |
Ceiling avg |
| Family |
4.8 |
4.2 |
| MegaCorp |
7.8 |
8.8 |
| MidTier |
7.1 |
7.1 |
Starter verdict summary
| Verdict |
Count |
| healthy |
31 |
| expected_loss |
35 |
| investigate |
1 |
| other |
11 |
Starter — investigate
| Enemy |
Tier |
Boss |
Player |
Mode |
Win% |
Turns |
Detail |
| Mom & Pop Founders |
Family |
Y |
The Hacker (control/defensive) |
floor |
0% |
4.3 |
starter_floor_family |
Built deck — ceiling verdict summary (median variant)
| Verdict |
Count |
| healthy |
20 |
| gear_check |
1 |
| trivial |
9 |
Built deck — investigate (median variant)
| Tier |
Profile |
Enemy |
Player |
Win% |
Turns |
E_DPT |
P_DPT |
| (none) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Build-variant win-rate spread (ceiling combat, all tier-entry matchups)
Models reward/totem-draft luck: floor = no totem drawn, median = typical RewardPool-sampled totem at this tier's battle/boss count, ceiling = a Rare totem (capital-affordable past Family — see economy_model.py).
| Variant |
Avg win% |
Min win% |
Max win% |
| floor |
60% |
0% |
100% |
| median |
59% |
0% |
100% |
| ceiling |
68% |
0% |
100% |
Fragile matchups (tier clear depends on totem luck)
| Enemy |
Tier |
Player |
Floor win% |
Best variant |
Best win% |
Totem |
| The Singularity (SING-∞) |
MegaCorp |
The Hacker (control/defensive) |
2% |
ceiling |
94% |
Coffee Machine |
| Protocol Handler (PROTO-CTRL) |
MegaCorp |
The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) |
10% |
ceiling |
57% |
The Actuarial Table |
Tier-entry build recipes
| Tier |
Style |
HP bonus |
Add |
Remove |
| MidTier |
The Venture Capitalist |
+0 |
1×DDoS Attack, 1×Growth Hacking, 1×Viral Campaign, 1×Algorithm Override |
1×Model Collapse, 1×Firewall |
| MidTier |
The Tech Founder |
+8 |
1×Machine Learning, 1×Zero-Day Exploit, 1×Neural Network |
1×Stack Overflow, 1×Chaos Protocol |
| MidTier |
The Hacker |
+12 |
1×Buffer Overflow, 1×System Restore, 1×Total System Failure |
1×Beta Release, 1×Cache Hit |
| MegaCorp |
The Venture Capitalist |
+8 |
1×Singularity Event, 1×Neural Network, 1×IPO |
1×Vaporware Pitch |
| MegaCorp |
The Tech Founder |
+32 |
1×Quantum Firewall, 1×Generative Model, 1×Data Center |
1×Social Engineering |
| MegaCorp |
The Hacker |
+40 |
1×Glitch Storm, 1×Deepfake, 1×Ransomware |
1×API Call |
Cross-sector summary
| Sector |
Starter investigate |
Pacing bugs |
Built investigate (median) |
Fragile matchups |
| Healthcare |
3 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
| Energy |
0 |
0 |
5 |
4 |
| AI |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
See reports/balance_problem_matchups.md for a prioritized fix list.