Gold-Standard Monte Carlo Run Report
Generated: 2026-07-01 21:30 UTC. Run python3 scripts/generate_sim_reports.py to refresh.
Sim model (current)
- Tier flow: fight 1 → shop (fight-1 victory capital) → fight 2 → event → boss.
- Combat: ceiling mode, intent-aware block, same-turn hype in predict_turn().
- Shop: shop_decision.py — synergy-weighted cards/totems, rerolls (75/150), ~90%+ capital spend.
- Family regulars: 50 HP, 6–7 card decks (sector peers). Junior Dev reworked (no hype bomb).
- Simplifications: greedy shopper, no map routing, derived card rarity for shop pricing.
Trials: 300 per starter per sector, seed 7.
Headline
141 / 2700 simulated runs cleared all three tiers (5.22% pooled).
| Sector | Starter | Full clear | Family F1 | Family F2 | Shop spend | Reroll payoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) | 3.7% | 100.0% | 99.7% | 95.8% | 65.1% |
| Healthcare | The Nurse (balanced/sustain) | 1.0% | 90.3% | 76.0% | 95.5% | 72.4% |
| Healthcare | The Plague Doctor (bleed) | 1.3% | 100.0% | 98.7% | 95.6% | 69.4% |
| Energy | The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) | 0.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 96.2% | 38.5% |
| Energy | The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) | 0.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 96.4% | 41.2% |
| Energy | The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) | 0.0% | 100.0% | 99.7% | 96.2% | 39.3% |
| Ai | The Hacker (control/defensive) | 10.3% | 100.0% | 99.7% | 96.2% | 47.9% |
| Ai | The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) | 24.7% | 100.0% | 97.7% | 96.3% | 47.4% |
| Ai | The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) | 5.0% | 99.0% | 97.6% | 95.9% | 57.3% |
Death breakdown
Healthcare
- The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon): deaths {'MidTier': 163, 'MegaCorp': 84, 'Family': 42}; top killers: The Core Mind (CORE-∞) (70), The Regional CEO (The Heavy Hitter) (62), Mom & Pop (Owners) (41), The Shredder (Document Destruction) (36), The Lobbyist (The Tempo Killer) (31)
- The Nurse (balanced/sustain): deaths {'Family': 209, 'MidTier': 64, 'MegaCorp': 24}; top killers: Mom & Pop (Owners) (115), Nurse Sister (91), The Lobbyist (The Tempo Killer) (22), The Shredder (Document Destruction) (20), The Core Mind (CORE-∞) (18)
- The Plague Doctor (bleed): deaths {'MidTier': 132, 'MegaCorp': 24, 'Family': 140}; top killers: Mom & Pop (Owners) (136), The Lobbyist (The Tempo Killer) (51), The Regional CEO (The Heavy Hitter) (35), The Core Mind (CORE-∞) (23), The Shredder (Document Destruction) (22)
Energy
- The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain): deaths {'MidTier': 231, 'MegaCorp': 31, 'Family': 37}; top killers: Drilling Director (92), Nuclear Physicist (52), Mr. & Mrs. Watts (Owners) (37), Pipeline Foreman (30), Grid Security Officer (29)
- The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk): deaths {'MidTier': 203, 'MegaCorp': 31, 'Family': 64}; top killers: Drilling Director (69), Mr. & Mrs. Watts (Owners) (64), Nuclear Physicist (40), Grid Security Officer (38), Pipeline Foreman (38)
- The Wildcatter (aggro/surge): deaths {'MidTier': 173, 'Family': 112, 'MegaCorp': 15}; top killers: Mr. & Mrs. Watts (Owners) (111), Drilling Director (50), Pipeline Foreman (35), Nuclear Physicist (34), Grid Security Officer (29)
Ai
- The Hacker (control/defensive): deaths {'Family': 83, 'MegaCorp': 39, 'MidTier': 147}; top killers: VP of Engineering (98), Mom & Pop Founders (82), Attack Vector (VECT-X1) (24), Product Manager (23), Data Scientist (15)
- The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling): deaths {'MidTier': 117, 'MegaCorp': 49, 'Family': 60}; top killers: VP of Engineering (86), Mom & Pop Founders (53), Attack Vector (VECT-X1) (25), Product Manager (18), The Singularity (SING-∞) (9)
- The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro): deaths {'Family': 143, 'MidTier': 113, 'MegaCorp': 29}; top killers: Mom & Pop Founders (133), VP of Engineering (79), Attack Vector (VECT-X1) (17), Product Manager (15), UX Designer (Daughter) (9)
Boss-entry snapshots (Family)
| Starter | n | HP | Deck | Capital | Totems |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) | 299 | 60.6/79.6 | 14.9 | ~309 | 2.03 |
| The Nurse (balanced/sustain) | 206 | 53.6/89.9 | 15.6 | ~327 | 1.91 |
| The Plague Doctor (bleed) | 296 | 55.8/90.0 | 14.9 | ~318 | 2.04 |
| The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) | 300 | 55.5/78.9 | 13.8 | ~312 | 2.27 |
| The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) | 300 | 55.4/89.4 | 13.9 | ~320 | 2.23 |
| The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) | 299 | 35.2/73.8 | 14.9 | ~327 | 2.21 |
| The Hacker (control/defensive) | 299 | 52.7/58.4 | 15.3 | ~323 | 2.18 |
| The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) | 293 | 70.6/88.1 | 14.1 | ~311 | 2.17 |
| The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) | 290 | 45.8/68.8 | 14.3 | ~320 | 2.17 |
Reproducing
python3 scripts/generate_sim_reports.py
python3 scripts/run_simulator.py --sector all --trials 300 --seed 7 --json-out reports/data/run_sim.json