Gold-Standard Monte Carlo Run Report
Generated: 2026-07-10 17:01 UTC. Run python3 scripts/generate_sim_reports.py to refresh.
Sim model (current)
- Tier flow: fight 1 → shop (fight-1 victory capital) → fight 2 → event → boss.
- Combat: ceiling mode, intent-aware block, same-turn hype in predict_turn().
- Combat policies: heuristic (greedy archetype scoring) and ideal (hand-authored optimal combat + economy for all 9 starters).
- Balance target (A2): --run-policy ideal — combat + shop + events + removals + boons.
- Shop: shop_decision.py — synergy-weighted cards/totems, rerolls (75/150), ~90%+ capital spend.
- Family regulars: 50 HP, 6–7 card decks (sector peers). Junior Dev reworked (no hype bomb).
- Simplifications: greedy shopper, no map routing, derived card rarity for shop pricing.
Trials: 80 per starter per sector, seed 7.
Heuristic combat (greedy archetype scoring)
8 / 720 simulated runs cleared all three tiers (1.11% pooled).
| Sector | Starter | Full clear | Family F1 | Family F2 | Shop spend | Reroll payoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) | 0.0% | 93.8% | 61.3% | 94.5% | 85.0% |
| Healthcare | The Nurse (balanced/sustain) | 0.0% | 98.8% | 57.0% | 94.5% | 63.0% |
| Healthcare | The Plague Doctor (bleed) | 0.0% | 67.5% | 16.7% | 93.8% | 83.3% |
| Energy | The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 95.0% | 58.4% |
| Energy | The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) | 0.0% | 100.0% | 92.5% | 93.9% | 52.0% |
| Energy | The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) | 0.0% | 100.0% | 98.8% | 96.0% | 41.5% |
| Ai | The Hacker (control/defensive) | 0.0% | 100.0% | 93.8% | 95.2% | 55.5% |
| Ai | The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) | 8.7% | 100.0% | 97.5% | 95.3% | 53.1% |
| Ai | The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) | 1.3% | 100.0% | 62.5% | 95.3% | 63.9% |
Ideal run policy (1:1 skilled play — combat + economy + events)
15 / 720 simulated runs cleared all three tiers (2.08% pooled).
| Sector | Starter | Full clear | Family F1 | Family F2 | Shop spend | Reroll payoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) | 0.0% | 68.8% | 52.7% | 93.4% | 88.0% |
| Healthcare | The Nurse (balanced/sustain) | 0.0% | 100.0% | 56.2% | 92.6% | 70.0% |
| Healthcare | The Plague Doctor (bleed) | 0.0% | 60.0% | 29.2% | 94.7% | 61.9% |
| Energy | The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) | 0.0% | 100.0% | 98.8% | 90.3% | 58.9% |
| Energy | The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) | 0.0% | 98.8% | 55.7% | 93.9% | 59.1% |
| Energy | The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) | 0.0% | 100.0% | 98.8% | 94.8% | 43.0% |
| Ai | The Hacker (control/defensive) | 0.0% | 100.0% | 81.2% | 94.1% | 61.2% |
| Ai | The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) | 18.8% | 100.0% | 95.0% | 91.9% | 53.9% |
| Ai | The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) | 0.0% | 97.5% | 28.2% | 94.1% | 55.4% |
Death breakdown (heuristic combat)
Healthcare
- The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon): deaths {'Family': 77, 'MidTier': 3}; top killers: Mom & Pop (Owners) (43), Nurse Sister (29), The Son (Junior Associate) (5), The Shredder (Document Destruction) (2), The Claims Adjuster (The Wall) (1)
- The Nurse (balanced/sustain): deaths {'Family': 78, 'MidTier': 2}; top killers: Mom & Pop (Owners) (43), Nurse Sister (34), The Claims Adjuster (The Wall) (1), The Son (Junior Associate) (1), The Shredder (Document Destruction) (1)
- The Plague Doctor (bleed): deaths {'Family': 78, 'MidTier': 2}; top killers: Nurse Sister (45), The Son (Junior Associate) (26), Mom & Pop (Owners) (7), The Claims Adjuster (The Wall) (1), The Shredder (Document Destruction) (1)
Energy
- The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain): deaths {'MidTier': 37, 'Family': 37, 'MegaCorp': 6}; top killers: Mr. & Mrs. Watts (Owners) (37), Pipeline Foreman (13), Nuclear Physicist (7), Grid Security Officer (7), Drilling Director (7)
- The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk): deaths {'MidTier': 33, 'Family': 44, 'MegaCorp': 3}; top killers: Mr. & Mrs. Watts (Owners) (38), Drilling Director (11), Pipeline Foreman (10), Grid Security Officer (6), Energy Consultant (Daughter) (6)
- The Wildcatter (aggro/surge): deaths {'MegaCorp': 13, 'MidTier': 36, 'Family': 31}; top killers: Mr. & Mrs. Watts (Owners) (30), Pipeline Foreman (13), Field Geologist (9), Nuclear Physicist (8), Reactor Core (CORE-X1) (6)
Ai
- The Hacker (control/defensive): deaths {'MidTier': 34, 'Family': 42, 'MegaCorp': 4}; top killers: Mom & Pop Founders (37), VP of Engineering (18), Product Manager (6), Data Scientist (6), UX Designer (Daughter) (5)
- The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling): deaths {'MidTier': 25, 'MegaCorp': 19, 'Family': 29}; top killers: Mom & Pop Founders (27), VP of Engineering (15), Attack Vector (VECT-X1) (7), Product Manager (5), Data Miner (MINE-3) (4)
- The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro): deaths {'Family': 63, 'MidTier': 14, 'MegaCorp': 2}; top killers: Mom & Pop Founders (33), UX Designer (Daughter) (30), Data Scientist (6), VP of Engineering (4), Product Manager (3)
Boss-entry snapshots (Family)
| Starter | n | HP | Deck | Capital | Totems |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) | 46 | 19.5/74.0 | 14.1 | ~311 | 1.98 |
| The Nurse (balanced/sustain) | 45 | 33.6/89.7 | 15.0 | ~281 | 2.02 |
| The Plague Doctor (bleed) | 9 | 18.7/87.6 | 15.6 | ~291 | 2 |
| The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) | 80 | 52.2/87.4 | 13.9 | ~246 | 2.05 |
| The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) | 74 | 58.4/95.0 | 14.5 | ~295 | 2.07 |
| The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) | 79 | 41.9/81.3 | 15.3 | ~251 | 2.24 |
| The Hacker (control/defensive) | 75 | 43.8/63.6 | 13.9 | ~255 | 2.13 |
| The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) | 78 | 63.0/87.8 | 13.8 | ~260 | 2.21 |
| The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) | 50 | 39.4/76.6 | 13.9 | ~250 | 2.18 |
Reproducing
python3 scripts/generate_sim_reports.py
python3 scripts/run_simulator.py --sector all --trials 300 --seed 7 --combat-policy ideal --json-out reports/data/run_sim.json