Fight Progression & Shop Impact Analysis
Generated: 2026-07-01 21:30 UTC. Run python3 scripts/generate_sim_reports.py to refresh.
Methodology
- Fight progression comes from the gold-standard run sim (chained tier, real shop/events).
- Shop experiment (
analyze_shop_impact.py): fight 1 → shop → fight 2 per strategy arm.
- F1 matrix (isolated): starter deck, full HP, no shop — 300 trials each.
Current tier order: fight 1 → shop → fight 2 → event → boss.
Question 1: Family fight 1 win% (full run sim)
| Sector |
Starter |
F1 win% |
HP after F1 |
F2 win% |
HP after F2 |
| Healthcare |
The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) |
100.0% |
64.5/74.7 (86.3%) |
99.7% |
58.1/79.6 (72.8%) |
| Healthcare |
The Nurse (balanced/sustain) |
90.3% |
42.3/84.5 (49.9%) |
76.0% |
51.3/89.9 (57.0%) |
| Healthcare |
The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
100.0% |
64.1/85 (75.4%) |
98.7% |
53.4/90.0 (59.3%) |
| Energy |
The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) |
100.0% |
63.9/74.5 (85.7%) |
100.0% |
55.4/78.9 (69.9%) |
| Energy |
The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
100.0% |
69.3/84.6 (81.9%) |
100.0% |
55.4/89.4 (61.8%) |
| Energy |
The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) |
100.0% |
48.4/69.5 (69.6%) |
99.7% |
35.2/73.8 (47.4%) |
| Ai |
The Hacker (control/defensive) |
100.0% |
52.5/54.1 (96.9%) |
99.7% |
52.7/58.4 (90.0%) |
| Ai |
The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) |
100.0% |
76.1/83.8 (90.7%) |
97.7% |
70.6/88.1 (80.0%) |
| Ai |
The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) |
99.0% |
52.1/64.5 (80.7%) |
97.6% |
45.8/68.8 (66.2%) |
Question 1b: Isolated F1 matrix (starter only, full HP)
Design target: >99% clear rate with optimal play. Failures highlight balance or AI gaps.
Healthcare
| Starter |
Enemy |
Win% |
Avg turns |
Pass |
| The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) |
The Son (Junior Associate) |
100.0% |
1.6 |
✓ |
| The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) |
Nurse Sister |
100.0% |
1.5 |
✓ |
| The Nurse (balanced/sustain) |
The Son (Junior Associate) |
100.0% |
8.5 |
✓ |
| The Nurse (balanced/sustain) |
Nurse Sister |
85.7% |
6.2 |
✗ |
| The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
The Son (Junior Associate) |
100.0% |
3.0 |
✓ |
| The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
Nurse Sister |
100.0% |
2.6 |
✓ |
Energy
| Starter |
Enemy |
Win% |
Avg turns |
Pass |
| The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) |
Junior Technician (Son) |
100.0% |
2.5 |
✓ |
| The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) |
Energy Consultant (Daughter) |
100.0% |
3.3 |
✓ |
| The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
Junior Technician (Son) |
100.0% |
4.2 |
✓ |
| The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
Energy Consultant (Daughter) |
100.0% |
11.5 |
✓ |
| The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) |
Junior Technician (Son) |
100.0% |
2.0 |
✓ |
| The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) |
Energy Consultant (Daughter) |
100.0% |
2.5 |
✓ |
Ai
| Starter |
Enemy |
Win% |
Avg turns |
Pass |
| The Hacker (control/defensive) |
Junior Dev (Son) |
100.0% |
4.2 |
✓ |
| The Hacker (control/defensive) |
UX Designer (Daughter) |
100.0% |
2.9 |
✓ |
| The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) |
Junior Dev (Son) |
100.0% |
3.6 |
✓ |
| The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) |
UX Designer (Daughter) |
100.0% |
3.6 |
✓ |
| The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) |
Junior Dev (Son) |
100.0% |
3.5 |
✓ |
| The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) |
UX Designer (Daughter) |
99.0% |
3.4 |
✓ |
Question 2: Shop strategy impact (pooled)
500 trials per strategy per starter, seed 7.
| Strategy |
F1 win% |
F2 win% |
HP after F2 |
Spend |
| none |
99.0% |
97.9% |
53.1 (67.2%) |
~0 |
| cards_only |
99.0% |
96.7% |
50.4 (64.0%) |
~858.6 |
| totems_only |
98.9% |
98.2% |
55.6 (70.6%) |
~274.4 |
| greedy |
98.8% |
96.8% |
53.3 (67.8%) |
~930.8 |
| removal_only |
99.0% |
99.4% |
52.3 (66.3%) |
~720.0 |
| cards_and_removal |
98.8% |
96.3% |
50.4 (64.0%) |
~873.1 |
Greedy shop: reroll & spend (from full run sim)
| Sector |
Starter |
Capital spent |
Spend % |
Rerolls/visit |
Payoff rate |
| Healthcare |
The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) |
~979 |
95.8% |
1.00 |
65.1% |
| Healthcare |
The Nurse (balanced/sustain) |
~952 |
95.5% |
0.66 |
72.4% |
| Healthcare |
The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
~953 |
95.6% |
0.98 |
69.4% |
| Energy |
The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) |
~981 |
96.2% |
2.22 |
38.5% |
| Energy |
The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
~981 |
96.4% |
2.21 |
41.2% |
| Energy |
The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) |
~969 |
96.2% |
2.22 |
39.3% |
| Ai |
The Hacker (control/defensive) |
~973 |
96.2% |
1.75 |
47.9% |
| Ai |
The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) |
~1001 |
96.3% |
1.90 |
47.4% |
| Ai |
The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) |
~966 |
95.9% |
1.65 |
57.3% |
Greedy by totem (pooled, n≥20)
| Totem |
n |
F2 win% |
HP after F2 |
| Hydroelectric Dam |
735 |
99.3% |
53.3 |
| Quantum Processor |
624 |
99.0% |
55.0 |
| Debugging Duck |
177 |
98.3% |
53.1 |
| Generic Patent |
582 |
97.9% |
54.5 |
| The Bottomless Pot |
173 |
97.1% |
52.3 |
| Surge Protector |
185 |
96.8% |
48.2 |
| Cursed Doll |
245 |
96.3% |
52.0 |
| Stock Options |
278 |
95.7% |
50.4 |
| The Deductible |
559 |
95.5% |
54.7 |
| The Ambulance Chaser |
171 |
95.3% |
49.7 |
| HMO Directory |
625 |
93.1% |
53.8 |
| (no totem bought) |
108 |
83.3% |
49 |
Reproducing
python3 scripts/generate_sim_reports.py