Fight Progression & Shop Impact Analysis
Generated: 2026-07-09 22:13 UTC. Run python3 scripts/generate_sim_reports.py to refresh.
Methodology
- Fight progression comes from the gold-standard run sim (chained tier, real shop/events).
- Shop experiment (
analyze_shop_impact.py): fight 1 → shop → fight 2 per strategy arm.
- F1 matrix (isolated): starter deck, full HP, no shop — 300 trials each.
Current tier order: fight 1 → shop → fight 2 → event → boss.
Question 1: Family fight 1 win% (full run sim)
| Sector |
Starter |
F1 win% |
HP after F1 |
F2 win% |
HP after F2 |
| Healthcare |
The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) |
94.0% |
35.2/71.5 (49.2%) |
63.8% |
17.4/74.1 (23.4%) |
| Healthcare |
The Nurse (balanced/sustain) |
98.7% |
32.9/84.2 (38.8%) |
44.3% |
23.0/89.4 (25.7%) |
| Healthcare |
The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
62.7% |
22.2/83.4 (26.6%) |
22.3% |
17.4/86.7 (19.9%) |
| Energy |
The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) |
100.0% |
53.1/84.0 (63.1%) |
99.7% |
46.8/87.4 (53.3%) |
| Energy |
The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
100.0% |
56.8/93.9 (60.5%) |
95.3% |
49.8/95.9 (51.7%) |
| Energy |
The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) |
100.0% |
52.9/78.6 (67.3%) |
98.0% |
40.4/81.1 (49.6%) |
| Ai |
The Hacker (control/defensive) |
100.0% |
51.0/59.0 (86.2%) |
92.7% |
40.4/61.8 (64.9%) |
| Ai |
The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) |
100.0% |
76.2/83.1 (91.7%) |
95.7% |
60.3/86.7 (69.6%) |
| Ai |
The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) |
100.0% |
50.0/71.6 (69.7%) |
53.3% |
31.9/75.2 (42.2%) |
Question 1b: Isolated F1 matrix (starter only, full HP)
Design target: >99% clear rate with optimal play. Failures highlight balance or AI gaps.
Healthcare
| Starter |
Enemy |
Win% |
Avg turns |
Pass |
| The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) |
The Son (Junior Associate) |
97.0% |
1.6 |
✗ |
| The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) |
Nurse Sister |
100.0% |
1.6 |
✓ |
| The Nurse (balanced/sustain) |
The Son (Junior Associate) |
99.7% |
3.9 |
✓ |
| The Nurse (balanced/sustain) |
Nurse Sister |
92.3% |
3.3 |
✗ |
| The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
The Son (Junior Associate) |
63.7% |
2.6 |
✗ |
| The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
Nurse Sister |
100.0% |
2.3 |
✓ |
Energy
| Starter |
Enemy |
Win% |
Avg turns |
Pass |
| The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) |
Junior Technician (Son) |
100.0% |
2.7 |
✓ |
| The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) |
Energy Consultant (Daughter) |
100.0% |
4.7 |
✓ |
| The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
Junior Technician (Son) |
100.0% |
3.4 |
✓ |
| The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
Energy Consultant (Daughter) |
100.0% |
10.0 |
✓ |
| The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) |
Junior Technician (Son) |
100.0% |
2.0 |
✓ |
| The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) |
Energy Consultant (Daughter) |
100.0% |
2.9 |
✓ |
Ai
| Starter |
Enemy |
Win% |
Avg turns |
Pass |
| The Hacker (control/defensive) |
Junior Dev (Son) |
100.0% |
3.4 |
✓ |
| The Hacker (control/defensive) |
UX Designer (Daughter) |
100.0% |
6.5 |
✓ |
| The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) |
Junior Dev (Son) |
100.0% |
2.1 |
✓ |
| The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) |
UX Designer (Daughter) |
100.0% |
2.1 |
✓ |
| The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) |
Junior Dev (Son) |
100.0% |
4.3 |
✓ |
| The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) |
UX Designer (Daughter) |
81.3% |
4.0 |
✗ |
Question 2: Shop strategy impact (pooled)
500 trials per strategy per starter, seed 7.
| Strategy |
F1 win% |
F2 win% |
HP after F2 |
Spend |
| none |
95.5% |
79.6% |
42.7 (51.8%) |
~0 |
| cards_only |
96.0% |
72.9% |
38.7 (47.0%) |
~840.0 |
| totems_only |
95.3% |
85.3% |
44.2 (53.8%) |
~273.8 |
| greedy |
95.0% |
76.5% |
40.9 (50.0%) |
~923.0 |
| removal_only |
95.5% |
64.7% |
39.9 (48.0%) |
~709.7 |
| cards_and_removal |
95.8% |
73.6% |
38.8 (47.6%) |
~856.8 |
Greedy shop: reroll & spend (from full run sim)
| Sector |
Starter |
Capital spent |
Spend % |
Rerolls/visit |
Payoff rate |
| Healthcare |
The Hustler (aggro/glasscannon) |
~928 |
95.6% |
0.66 |
72.3% |
| Healthcare |
The Nurse (balanced/sustain) |
~918 |
95.7% |
0.71 |
67.9% |
| Healthcare |
The Plague Doctor (bleed) |
~921 |
95.6% |
0.59 |
72.7% |
| Energy |
The Grid Operator (defensive/sustain) |
~920 |
95.7% |
1.32 |
60.6% |
| Energy |
The Nuclear Engineer (scaling/risk) |
~933 |
95.6% |
1.47 |
57.1% |
| Energy |
The Wildcatter (aggro/surge) |
~933 |
96.5% |
1.89 |
47.1% |
| Ai |
The Hacker (control/defensive) |
~924 |
96.0% |
1.16 |
60.5% |
| Ai |
The Tech Founder (balanced/scaling) |
~930 |
95.7% |
1.51 |
59.0% |
| Ai |
The Venture Capitalist (hype/aggro) |
~926 |
95.9% |
1.28 |
66.0% |
Greedy by totem (pooled, n≥20)
| Totem |
n |
F2 win% |
HP after F2 |
| Hydroelectric Dam |
497 |
90.3% |
45.6 |
| Switchyard |
93 |
88.2% |
44.6 |
| The Bottomless Pot |
115 |
83.5% |
44.2 |
| Prompt Cache |
214 |
82.7% |
40.8 |
| Quantum Processor |
438 |
81.3% |
45.3 |
| Capacitor Bank |
192 |
81.2% |
44.4 |
| Peak Load Reserve |
79 |
81.0% |
40.8 |
| Surge Protector |
107 |
80.4% |
39.0 |
| Generic Patent |
441 |
80.0% |
42.5 |
| Cursed Doll |
211 |
79.6% |
38.3 |
| Adversarial Patch |
85 |
78.8% |
44.1 |
| Stock Options |
218 |
78.0% |
41.5 |
| Turbine Governor |
204 |
76.5% |
42.6 |
| Echo Chamber |
200 |
75.5% |
39.9 |
| Debugging Duck |
97 |
75.3% |
43.0 |
| The Deductible |
354 |
66.7% |
34.2 |
| The Ambulance Chaser |
106 |
65.1% |
37.4 |
| HMO Directory |
424 |
59.0% |
32.2 |
| (no totem bought) |
403 |
50.6% |
26.7 |
Reproducing
python3 scripts/generate_sim_reports.py