Event Balance Report
Per-option value decomposition (Long/Short/Net) from the currency-value regression, plus which events have the widest value spread across their options and a worked balancing suggestion for the widest ones.
Long = sum of positive currency contributions (pp). Short = sum of negative contributions (pp, shown negative). Net = Long + Short (predicted win-rate delta over the model's baseline). Residual = actual pooled clear rate minus the model's prediction -- positive means the option overperforms its stated currencies (hidden value, e.g. a strong card grant); negative means it underperforms (hidden cost).
Events ranked by option-value spread (actual, widest first)
| Sector | Event | Spread (actual) | Spread (net model) | Options (worst -> best, actual) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| energy | Performance Review | 34.7% | 28.0% | Accept Full Responsibility (6.1%) -> Deflect to the Interns (10.0%) -> The Golden Parachute (40.8%) |
| healthcare | Performance Review | 26.7% | 28.0% | Accept Full Responsibility (7.5%) -> Deflect to the Interns (18.9%) -> The Golden Parachute (34.2%) |
| ai | Performance Review | 20.2% | 28.0% | Accept Full Responsibility (5.6%) -> Deflect to the Interns (10.8%) -> The Golden Parachute (25.8%) |
| healthcare | Margin Call | 18.0% | 10.6% | Emergency Liquidity (5.6%) -> Strategic Default (13.9%) -> Buy the Dip (23.6%) |
| healthcare | Clinical Trial Leak | 16.1% | 8.6% | The Full Dosage (7.5%) -> Micro-Dose (18.6%) -> Sanitize the Lab (23.6%) |
| ai | The Model Training Run | 15.3% | 15.1% | Ship It Untested (4.4%) -> Fine-Tune Carefully (12.8%) -> Scrape the Whole Internet (19.7%) |
| healthcare | Regulatory Audit (Healthcare) | 15.0% | 3.7% | Double Down (6.4%) -> Bribe the Auditor (14.4%) -> Shred the Documents (21.4%) |
| healthcare | The Retention Package | 14.2% | 12.4% | Negotiate a Cash Bonus (9.7%) -> Take the Sabbatical (22.8%) -> Sign the Retention Deal (23.9%) |
| energy | The Retention Package | 14.2% | 12.4% | Negotiate a Cash Bonus (9.4%) -> Sign the Retention Deal (19.2%) -> Take the Sabbatical (23.6%) |
| ai | Clinical Trial Leak | 14.2% | 8.6% | The Full Dosage (3.6%) -> Micro-Dose (9.7%) -> Sanitize the Lab (17.8%) |
| energy | The Reactor Drill | 13.6% | 9.4% | Divert Emergency Funds (5.6%) -> Overload the Grid (10.6%) -> Invest in Redundancy (19.2%) |
| healthcare | Hostile Takeover Bid | 13.1% | 9.1% | Leverage Yourself (8.6%) -> Poison Pill Defense (20.8%) -> Buy Out the Rival (21.7%) |
| energy | The Networking Gala | 12.5% | 7.8% | Work the Room (10.3%) -> Corner the Keynote Speaker (19.2%) -> Hit the Open Bar (22.8%) |
| ai | The Retention Package | 12.5% | 12.4% | Negotiate a Cash Bonus (3.6%) -> Sign the Retention Deal (10.8%) -> Take the Sabbatical (16.1%) |
| energy | The Layoffs | 10.8% | 1.0% | Downsize Aggressively (14.2%) -> Quiet Restructure (23.1%) -> Protect Morale (25.0%) |
| energy | The Whistleblower | 10.0% | 6.9% | Get Ahead of It (5.0%) -> Bury the Report (7.2%) -> Pay Hush Money (15.0%) |
| healthcare | The Whistleblower | 9.7% | 6.9% | Bury the Report (8.9%) -> Get Ahead of It (12.8%) -> Pay Hush Money (18.6%) |
| energy | Margin Call | 9.4% | 10.6% | Emergency Liquidity (6.7%) -> Strategic Default (8.3%) -> Buy the Dip (16.1%) |
| energy | The Pipeline Negotiation | 9.4% | 6.8% | Cut Safety Corners (8.1%) -> Bribe the Inspector (15.6%) -> Green Rebrand (17.5%) |
| healthcare | The Networking Gala | 9.2% | 7.8% | Work the Room (15.0%) -> Hit the Open Bar (20.3%) -> Corner the Keynote Speaker (24.2%) |
| ai | The Whistleblower | 9.2% | 6.9% | Bury the Report (5.0%) -> Get Ahead of It (5.8%) -> Pay Hush Money (14.2%) |
| energy | Executive Coaching | 8.9% | 7.3% | Grind Through the Classics (6.4%) -> Hire a Leadership Guru (10.3%) -> Delegate and Recharge (15.3%) |
| energy | Clinical Trial Leak | 8.9% | 8.6% | The Full Dosage (11.7%) -> Micro-Dose (14.2%) -> Sanitize the Lab (20.6%) |
| healthcare | The Malpractice Settlement | 8.6% | 4.7% | Blame the Algorithm (10.0%) -> Settle Quietly (16.7%) -> Countersue the Plaintiff (18.6%) |
| healthcare | The Off-Site Retreat | 7.8% | 5.9% | Aggressive Networking (14.4%) -> Poach a Consultant (21.4%) -> Trust Falls (22.2%) |
| ai | The Data Breach | 7.5% | 8.0% | Sell the Data Anyway (6.1%) -> Blame a Junior Engineer (10.8%) -> Cover It Up (13.6%) |
| healthcare | The Succession Plan | 7.5% | 5.9% | Nepotism Hire (8.3%) -> Groom a Successor (15.3%) -> Cling to Power (15.8%) |
| energy | Hostile Takeover Bid | 7.2% | 9.1% | Leverage Yourself (6.4%) -> Buy Out the Rival (13.3%) -> Poison Pill Defense (13.6%) |
| ai | Executive Coaching | 7.0% | 7.3% | Grind Through the Classics (6.9%) -> Hire a Leadership Guru (7.2%) -> Delegate and Recharge (13.9%) |
| energy | The Off-Site Retreat | 7.0% | 5.9% | Aggressive Networking (10.8%) -> Poach a Consultant (16.1%) -> Trust Falls (17.8%) |
| ai | The Boardroom Coup | 6.9% | 4.3% | File a Grievance (10.6%) -> Aggressive Restructuring (13.9%) -> Play It Safe (17.5%) |
| ai | Margin Call | 6.9% | 10.6% | Emergency Liquidity (5.0%) -> Strategic Default (5.3%) -> Buy the Dip (11.9%) |
| healthcare | Executive Coaching | 6.7% | 7.3% | Hire a Leadership Guru (10.0%) -> Grind Through the Classics (12.2%) -> Delegate and Recharge (16.7%) |
| ai | The Off-Site Retreat | 6.6% | 5.9% | Aggressive Networking (8.1%) -> Trust Falls (12.8%) -> Poach a Consultant (14.7%) |
| ai | Hostile Takeover Bid | 6.1% | 9.1% | Leverage Yourself (5.6%) -> Poison Pill Defense (10.6%) -> Buy Out the Rival (11.7%) |
| healthcare | The Boardroom Coup | 5.8% | 4.3% | File a Grievance (18.1%) -> Play It Safe (18.1%) -> Aggressive Restructuring (23.9%) |
| ai | The Layoffs | 5.6% | 1.0% | Quiet Restructure (12.5%) -> Downsize Aggressively (13.1%) -> Protect Morale (18.1%) |
| healthcare | The Pandemic Opportunity | 5.5% | 7.4% | Price Gouge Essentials (15.3%) -> Hoard the PPE (19.2%) -> Fast-Track a Vaccine (20.8%) |
| ai | The Succession Plan | 5.0% | 5.9% | Nepotism Hire (5.8%) -> Groom a Successor (9.4%) -> Cling to Power (10.8%) |
| energy | The Boardroom Coup | 4.5% | 4.3% | Aggressive Restructuring (11.9%) -> File a Grievance (13.3%) -> Play It Safe (16.4%) |
| energy | The Succession Plan | 3.9% | 5.9% | Nepotism Hire (6.7%) -> Cling to Power (10.0%) -> Groom a Successor (10.6%) |
| ai | The Networking Gala | 3.6% | 7.8% | Work the Room (10.3%) -> Corner the Keynote Speaker (11.1%) -> Hit the Open Bar (13.9%) |
| energy | Regulatory Audit (energy) | 3.6% | 3.7% | Bribe the Inspector (12.2%) -> Vent the Excess (12.8%) -> Overdraw Power (15.8%) |
| healthcare | The Layoffs | 3.3% | 1.0% | Protect Morale (21.1%) -> Downsize Aggressively (22.5%) -> Quiet Restructure (24.4%) |
| ai | Regulatory Audit (AI) | 2.5% | 3.7% | Unshackle Protocol (11.9%) -> Delete the Logs (13.6%) -> Bribe the Commission (14.4%) |
Per-option Long / Short / Net / Residual
[energy] Performance Review (spread 34.7%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accept Full Responsibility | +0.0% | -6.8% | -6.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | +0.5% |
| Deflect to the Interns | +2.2% | -6.2% | -4.0% | 8.4% | 10.0% | +1.6% |
| The Golden Parachute | +21.2% | 0.0% | +21.2% | 33.6% | 40.8% | +7.2% |
[healthcare] Performance Review (spread 26.7%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accept Full Responsibility | +0.0% | -6.8% | -6.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | +1.9% |
| Deflect to the Interns | +2.2% | -6.2% | -4.0% | 8.4% | 18.9% | +10.5% |
| The Golden Parachute | +21.2% | 0.0% | +21.2% | 33.6% | 34.2% | +0.6% |
[ai] Performance Review (spread 20.2%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accept Full Responsibility | +0.0% | -6.8% | -6.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | +0.0% |
| Deflect to the Interns | +2.2% | -6.2% | -4.0% | 8.4% | 10.8% | +2.4% |
| The Golden Parachute | +21.2% | 0.0% | +21.2% | 33.6% | 25.8% | -7.8% |
[healthcare] Margin Call (spread 18.0%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emergency Liquidity | +0.7% | -6.2% | -5.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | -1.3% |
| Strategic Default | +2.7% | -5.9% | -3.2% | 9.2% | 13.9% | +4.7% |
| Buy the Dip | +5.5% | -0.4% | +5.0% | 17.4% | 23.6% | +6.2% |
[healthcare] Clinical Trial Leak (spread 16.1%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Full Dosage | +0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% | 12.4% | 7.5% | -4.9% |
| Micro-Dose | +4.5% | -3.9% | +0.5% | 12.9% | 18.6% | +5.7% |
| Sanitize the Lab | +8.6% | 0.0% | +8.6% | 21.0% | 23.6% | +2.6% |
[ai] The Model Training Run (spread 15.3%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ship It Untested | +1.1% | -6.2% | -5.1% | 7.3% | 4.4% | -2.9% |
| Fine-Tune Carefully | +0.0% | -0.8% | -0.8% | 11.6% | 12.8% | +1.2% |
| Scrape the Whole Internet | +9.9% | 0.0% | +9.9% | 22.3% | 19.7% | -2.6% |
[healthcare] Regulatory Audit (Healthcare) (spread 15.0%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Down | +0.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 11.4% | 6.4% | -5.0% |
| Bribe the Auditor | +2.7% | -1.3% | +1.4% | 13.8% | 14.4% | +0.6% |
| Shred the Documents | +2.7% | 0.0% | +2.7% | 15.1% | 21.4% | +6.3% |
[healthcare] The Retention Package (spread 14.2%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negotiate a Cash Bonus | +1.8% | -6.2% | -4.4% | 8.0% | 9.7% | +1.7% |
| Take the Sabbatical | +8.7% | -0.7% | +7.9% | 20.4% | 22.8% | +2.4% |
| Sign the Retention Deal | +5.5% | 0.0% | +5.5% | 17.9% | 23.9% | +6.0% |
[energy] The Retention Package (spread 14.2%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negotiate a Cash Bonus | +1.8% | -6.2% | -4.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | +1.4% |
| Sign the Retention Deal | +5.5% | 0.0% | +5.5% | 17.9% | 19.2% | +1.3% |
| Take the Sabbatical | +8.7% | -0.7% | +7.9% | 20.4% | 23.6% | +3.2% |
[ai] Clinical Trial Leak (spread 14.2%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Full Dosage | +0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% | 12.4% | 3.6% | -8.8% |
| Micro-Dose | +4.5% | -3.9% | +0.5% | 12.9% | 9.7% | -3.2% |
| Sanitize the Lab | +8.6% | 0.0% | +8.6% | 21.0% | 17.8% | -3.2% |
[energy] The Reactor Drill (spread 13.6%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divert Emergency Funds | +1.4% | -6.2% | -4.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | -2.0% |
| Overload the Grid | +5.7% | -4.7% | +1.0% | 13.4% | 10.6% | -2.8% |
| Invest in Redundancy | +5.5% | -0.9% | +4.6% | 17.0% | 19.2% | +2.2% |
[healthcare] Hostile Takeover Bid (spread 13.1%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage Yourself | +1.2% | -6.2% | -5.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | +1.3% |
| Poison Pill Defense | +5.1% | -3.9% | +1.2% | 13.6% | 20.8% | +7.2% |
| Buy Out the Rival | +5.5% | -1.4% | +4.1% | 16.5% | 21.7% | +5.2% |
[energy] The Networking Gala (spread 12.5%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Work the Room | +1.2% | -2.0% | -0.7% | 11.7% | 10.3% | -1.4% |
| Corner the Keynote Speaker | +5.5% | -1.0% | +4.5% | 16.9% | 19.2% | +2.3% |
| Hit the Open Bar | +7.1% | 0.0% | +7.1% | 19.5% | 22.8% | +3.3% |
[ai] The Retention Package (spread 12.5%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negotiate a Cash Bonus | +1.8% | -6.2% | -4.4% | 8.0% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| Sign the Retention Deal | +5.5% | 0.0% | +5.5% | 17.9% | 10.8% | -7.1% |
| Take the Sabbatical | +8.7% | -0.7% | +7.9% | 20.4% | 16.1% | -4.3% |
[energy] The Layoffs (spread 10.8%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downsize Aggressively | +6.4% | 0.0% | +6.4% | 18.8% | 14.2% | -4.6% |
| Quiet Restructure | +7.1% | 0.0% | +7.1% | 19.6% | 23.1% | +3.5% |
| Protect Morale | +7.9% | -0.5% | +7.3% | 19.7% | 25.0% | +5.3% |
[energy] The Whistleblower (spread 10.0%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get Ahead of It | +0.0% | -4.9% | -4.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | -2.5% |
| Bury the Report | +0.8% | -6.2% | -5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | +0.2% |
| Pay Hush Money | +2.7% | -1.2% | +1.4% | 13.9% | 15.0% | +1.1% |
[healthcare] The Whistleblower (spread 9.7%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury the Report | +0.8% | -6.2% | -5.4% | 7.0% | 8.9% | +1.9% |
| Get Ahead of It | +0.0% | -4.9% | -4.9% | 7.5% | 12.8% | +5.3% |
| Pay Hush Money | +2.7% | -1.2% | +1.4% | 13.9% | 18.6% | +4.7% |
[energy] Margin Call (spread 9.4%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emergency Liquidity | +0.7% | -6.2% | -5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | -0.2% |
| Strategic Default | +2.7% | -5.9% | -3.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| Buy the Dip | +5.5% | -0.4% | +5.0% | 17.4% | 16.1% | -1.3% |
[energy] The Pipeline Negotiation (spread 9.4%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut Safety Corners | +1.3% | -3.1% | -1.8% | 10.6% | 8.1% | -2.5% |
| Bribe the Inspector | +2.7% | -1.2% | +1.4% | 13.9% | 15.6% | +1.7% |
| Green Rebrand | +5.5% | -0.5% | +5.0% | 17.4% | 17.5% | +0.1% |
[healthcare] The Networking Gala (spread 9.2%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Work the Room | +1.2% | -2.0% | -0.7% | 11.7% | 15.0% | +3.3% |
| Hit the Open Bar | +7.1% | 0.0% | +7.1% | 19.5% | 20.3% | +0.8% |
| Corner the Keynote Speaker | +5.5% | -1.0% | +4.5% | 16.9% | 24.2% | +7.3% |
[ai] The Whistleblower (spread 9.2%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury the Report | +0.8% | -6.2% | -5.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | -2.0% |
| Get Ahead of It | +0.0% | -4.9% | -4.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | -1.7% |
| Pay Hush Money | +2.7% | -1.2% | +1.4% | 13.9% | 14.2% | +0.3% |
[energy] Executive Coaching (spread 8.9%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grind Through the Classics | +0.0% | -3.4% | -3.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | -2.6% |
| Hire a Leadership Guru | +0.0% | -0.9% | -0.9% | 11.5% | 10.3% | -1.2% |
| Delegate and Recharge | +3.9% | 0.0% | +3.9% | 16.3% | 15.3% | -1.0% |
[energy] Clinical Trial Leak (spread 8.9%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Full Dosage | +0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% | 12.4% | 11.7% | -0.7% |
| Micro-Dose | +4.5% | -3.9% | +0.5% | 12.9% | 14.2% | +1.3% |
| Sanitize the Lab | +8.6% | 0.0% | +8.6% | 21.0% | 20.6% | -0.4% |
[healthcare] The Malpractice Settlement (spread 8.6%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blame the Algorithm | +5.5% | -6.2% | -0.7% | 11.7% | 10.0% | -1.7% |
| Settle Quietly | +2.7% | -1.2% | +1.5% | 13.9% | 16.7% | +2.8% |
| Countersue the Plaintiff | +4.0% | 0.0% | +4.0% | 16.4% | 18.6% | +2.2% |
[healthcare] The Off-Site Retreat (spread 7.8%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive Networking | +1.2% | -2.4% | -1.2% | 11.2% | 14.4% | +3.2% |
| Poach a Consultant | +5.5% | -1.3% | +4.2% | 16.6% | 21.4% | +4.8% |
| Trust Falls | +4.7% | 0.0% | +4.7% | 17.1% | 22.2% | +5.1% |
[ai] The Data Breach (spread 7.5%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sell the Data Anyway | +1.3% | -6.2% | -4.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | -1.4% |
| Blame a Junior Engineer | +5.5% | -2.4% | +3.1% | 15.5% | 10.8% | -4.7% |
| Cover It Up | +2.7% | -1.1% | +1.6% | 14.0% | 13.6% | -0.4% |
[healthcare] The Succession Plan (spread 7.5%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nepotism Hire | +1.0% | -6.2% | -5.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | +1.1% |
| Groom a Successor | +0.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 11.4% | 15.3% | +3.9% |
| Cling to Power | +3.8% | -3.1% | +0.7% | 13.1% | 15.8% | +2.7% |
[energy] Hostile Takeover Bid (spread 7.2%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage Yourself | +1.2% | -6.2% | -5.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | -0.9% |
| Buy Out the Rival | +5.5% | -1.4% | +4.1% | 16.5% | 13.3% | -3.2% |
| Poison Pill Defense | +5.1% | -3.9% | +1.2% | 13.6% | 13.6% | +0.0% |
[ai] Executive Coaching (spread 7.0%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grind Through the Classics | +0.0% | -3.4% | -3.4% | 9.0% | 6.9% | -2.1% |
| Hire a Leadership Guru | +0.0% | -0.9% | -0.9% | 11.5% | 7.2% | -4.3% |
| Delegate and Recharge | +3.9% | 0.0% | +3.9% | 16.3% | 13.9% | -2.4% |
[energy] The Off-Site Retreat (spread 7.0%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive Networking | +1.2% | -2.4% | -1.2% | 11.2% | 10.8% | -0.4% |
| Poach a Consultant | +5.5% | -1.3% | +4.2% | 16.6% | 16.1% | -0.5% |
| Trust Falls | +4.7% | 0.0% | +4.7% | 17.1% | 17.8% | +0.7% |
[ai] The Boardroom Coup (spread 6.9%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| File a Grievance | +1.6% | 0.0% | +1.6% | 14.0% | 10.6% | -3.4% |
| Aggressive Restructuring | +5.4% | -0.9% | +4.5% | 16.9% | 13.9% | -3.0% |
| Play It Safe | +5.9% | 0.0% | +5.9% | 18.3% | 17.5% | -0.8% |
[ai] Margin Call (spread 6.9%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emergency Liquidity | +0.7% | -6.2% | -5.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | -1.9% |
| Strategic Default | +2.7% | -5.9% | -3.2% | 9.2% | 5.3% | -3.9% |
| Buy the Dip | +5.5% | -0.4% | +5.0% | 17.4% | 11.9% | -5.5% |
[healthcare] Executive Coaching (spread 6.7%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hire a Leadership Guru | +0.0% | -0.9% | -0.9% | 11.5% | 10.0% | -1.5% |
| Grind Through the Classics | +0.0% | -3.4% | -3.4% | 9.0% | 12.2% | +3.2% |
| Delegate and Recharge | +3.9% | 0.0% | +3.9% | 16.3% | 16.7% | +0.4% |
[ai] The Off-Site Retreat (spread 6.6%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive Networking | +1.2% | -2.4% | -1.2% | 11.2% | 8.1% | -3.1% |
| Trust Falls | +4.7% | 0.0% | +4.7% | 17.1% | 12.8% | -4.3% |
| Poach a Consultant | +5.5% | -1.3% | +4.2% | 16.6% | 14.7% | -1.9% |
[ai] Hostile Takeover Bid (spread 6.1%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage Yourself | +1.2% | -6.2% | -5.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | -1.7% |
| Poison Pill Defense | +5.1% | -3.9% | +1.2% | 13.6% | 10.6% | -3.0% |
| Buy Out the Rival | +5.5% | -1.4% | +4.1% | 16.5% | 11.7% | -4.8% |
[healthcare] The Boardroom Coup (spread 5.8%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| File a Grievance | +1.6% | 0.0% | +1.6% | 14.0% | 18.1% | +4.1% |
| Play It Safe | +5.9% | 0.0% | +5.9% | 18.3% | 18.1% | -0.2% |
| Aggressive Restructuring | +5.4% | -0.9% | +4.5% | 16.9% | 23.9% | +7.0% |
[ai] The Layoffs (spread 5.6%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet Restructure | +7.1% | 0.0% | +7.1% | 19.6% | 12.5% | -7.1% |
| Downsize Aggressively | +6.4% | 0.0% | +6.4% | 18.8% | 13.1% | -5.7% |
| Protect Morale | +7.9% | -0.5% | +7.3% | 19.7% | 18.1% | -1.6% |
[healthcare] The Pandemic Opportunity (spread 5.5%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price Gouge Essentials | +1.6% | -3.9% | -2.3% | 10.1% | 15.3% | +5.2% |
| Hoard the PPE | +5.1% | 0.0% | +5.1% | 17.5% | 19.2% | +1.7% |
| Fast-Track a Vaccine | +5.5% | -0.8% | +4.7% | 17.1% | 20.8% | +3.7% |
[ai] The Succession Plan (spread 5.0%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nepotism Hire | +1.0% | -6.2% | -5.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | -1.4% |
| Groom a Successor | +0.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 11.4% | 9.4% | -2.0% |
| Cling to Power | +3.8% | -3.1% | +0.7% | 13.1% | 10.8% | -2.3% |
[energy] The Boardroom Coup (spread 4.5%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive Restructuring | +5.4% | -0.9% | +4.5% | 16.9% | 11.9% | -5.0% |
| File a Grievance | +1.6% | 0.0% | +1.6% | 14.0% | 13.3% | -0.7% |
| Play It Safe | +5.9% | 0.0% | +5.9% | 18.3% | 16.4% | -1.9% |
[energy] The Succession Plan (spread 3.9%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nepotism Hire | +1.0% | -6.2% | -5.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | -0.5% |
| Cling to Power | +3.8% | -3.1% | +0.7% | 13.1% | 10.0% | -3.1% |
| Groom a Successor | +0.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 11.4% | 10.6% | -0.8% |
[ai] The Networking Gala (spread 3.6%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Work the Room | +1.2% | -2.0% | -0.7% | 11.7% | 10.3% | -1.4% |
| Corner the Keynote Speaker | +5.5% | -1.0% | +4.5% | 16.9% | 11.1% | -5.8% |
| Hit the Open Bar | +7.1% | 0.0% | +7.1% | 19.5% | 13.9% | -5.6% |
[energy] Regulatory Audit (energy) (spread 3.6%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bribe the Inspector | +2.7% | -1.3% | +1.4% | 13.8% | 12.2% | -1.6% |
| Vent the Excess | +2.7% | 0.0% | +2.7% | 15.1% | 12.8% | -2.3% |
| Overdraw Power | +0.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 11.4% | 15.8% | +4.4% |
[healthcare] The Layoffs (spread 3.3%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protect Morale | +7.9% | -0.5% | +7.3% | 19.7% | 21.1% | +1.4% |
| Downsize Aggressively | +6.4% | 0.0% | +6.4% | 18.8% | 22.5% | +3.7% |
| Quiet Restructure | +7.1% | 0.0% | +7.1% | 19.6% | 24.4% | +4.8% |
[ai] Regulatory Audit (AI) (spread 2.5%)
| Option | Long | Short | Net | Predicted | Actual | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unshackle Protocol | +0.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 11.4% | 11.9% | +0.5% |
| Delete the Logs | +2.7% | 0.0% | +2.7% | 15.1% | 13.6% | -1.5% |
| Bribe the Commission | +2.7% | -1.3% | +1.4% | 13.8% | 14.4% | +0.6% |
Worked balancing suggestions (all 45 event instances)
Method: take each event's best-performing option as the local target net value, then price up the weakest option's gap using only statistically significant currency coefficients (HP, Max HP, card removal, totems -- Capital, card upgrades, Transform-to-Rare, and cursed totems are too noisy at this sample size, see currency_value_report.md, so they're excluded as balancing levers even though they can still be used narratively), each capped at the largest delta actually observed anywhere in the live event pool for that currency (PLAUSIBLE_MAX in analyze_event_balance.py: 25 HP, 10 Max HP, 2 card removals, 1 totem). Among levers that fit within their cap, picks whichever needs the smallest fraction of its typical range -- the least drastic single change. When nothing fits, that's a signal the option needs a structural change (different currency entirely, or removing a hidden cost like a curse card) rather than a numeric tweak.
10 of 45 event instances need a structural change; 35 can be closed with a single plausible currency tweak.
| Sector | Event | Weakest option | Gap to best | Suggested fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| energy | Performance Review | Accept Full Responsibility | +28.0% | no single currency lever closes this within its typical range -- needs a structural change (different reward type, or remove a hidden cost like a curse card) |
| healthcare | Performance Review | Accept Full Responsibility | +28.0% | no single currency lever closes this within its typical range -- needs a structural change (different reward type, or remove a hidden cost like a curse card) |
| ai | Performance Review | Accept Full Responsibility | +28.0% | no single currency lever closes this within its typical range -- needs a structural change (different reward type, or remove a hidden cost like a curse card) |
| healthcare | Margin Call | Emergency Liquidity | +10.6% | no single currency lever closes this within its typical range -- needs a structural change (different reward type, or remove a hidden cost like a curse card) |
| healthcare | Clinical Trial Leak | The Full Dosage | +8.6% | +22 HP |
| ai | The Model Training Run | Ship It Untested | +15.1% | no single currency lever closes this within its typical range -- needs a structural change (different reward type, or remove a hidden cost like a curse card) |
| healthcare | Regulatory Audit (Healthcare) | Double Down | +3.7% | +9 HP |
| healthcare | The Retention Package | Negotiate a Cash Bonus | +12.4% | no single currency lever closes this within its typical range -- needs a structural change (different reward type, or remove a hidden cost like a curse card) |
| energy | The Retention Package | Negotiate a Cash Bonus | +12.4% | no single currency lever closes this within its typical range -- needs a structural change (different reward type, or remove a hidden cost like a curse card) |
| ai | Clinical Trial Leak | The Full Dosage | +8.6% | +22 HP |
| energy | The Reactor Drill | Divert Emergency Funds | +9.4% | +24 HP |
| healthcare | Hostile Takeover Bid | Leverage Yourself | +9.1% | +23 HP |
| energy | The Networking Gala | Work the Room | +7.8% | +20 HP |
| ai | The Retention Package | Negotiate a Cash Bonus | +12.4% | no single currency lever closes this within its typical range -- needs a structural change (different reward type, or remove a hidden cost like a curse card) |
| energy | The Layoffs | Downsize Aggressively | +1.0% | +2 HP |
| energy | The Whistleblower | Get Ahead of It | +6.4% | +16 HP |
| healthcare | The Whistleblower | Bury the Report | +6.9% | +17 HP |
| energy | Margin Call | Emergency Liquidity | +10.6% | no single currency lever closes this within its typical range -- needs a structural change (different reward type, or remove a hidden cost like a curse card) |
| energy | The Pipeline Negotiation | Cut Safety Corners | +6.8% | +17 HP |
| healthcare | The Networking Gala | Work the Room | +7.8% | +20 HP |
| ai | The Whistleblower | Bury the Report | +6.9% | +17 HP |
| energy | Executive Coaching | Grind Through the Classics | +7.3% | +19 HP |
| energy | Clinical Trial Leak | The Full Dosage | +8.6% | +22 HP |
| healthcare | The Malpractice Settlement | Blame the Algorithm | +4.7% | +12 HP |
| healthcare | The Off-Site Retreat | Aggressive Networking | +5.9% | +15 HP |
| ai | The Data Breach | Sell the Data Anyway | +8.0% | +20 HP |
| healthcare | The Succession Plan | Nepotism Hire | +5.9% | +15 HP |
| energy | Hostile Takeover Bid | Leverage Yourself | +9.1% | +23 HP |
| ai | Executive Coaching | Grind Through the Classics | +7.3% | +19 HP |
| energy | The Off-Site Retreat | Aggressive Networking | +5.9% | +15 HP |
| ai | The Boardroom Coup | File a Grievance | +4.3% | +11 HP |
| ai | Margin Call | Emergency Liquidity | +10.6% | no single currency lever closes this within its typical range -- needs a structural change (different reward type, or remove a hidden cost like a curse card) |
| healthcare | Executive Coaching | Hire a Leadership Guru | +4.9% | +12 HP |
| ai | The Off-Site Retreat | Aggressive Networking | +5.9% | +15 HP |
| ai | Hostile Takeover Bid | Leverage Yourself | +9.1% | +23 HP |
| healthcare | The Boardroom Coup | File a Grievance | +4.3% | +11 HP |
| ai | The Layoffs | Quiet Restructure | +0.2% | +0 HP |
| healthcare | The Pandemic Opportunity | Price Gouge Essentials | +7.4% | +19 HP |
| ai | The Succession Plan | Nepotism Hire | +5.9% | +15 HP |
| energy | The Boardroom Coup | Aggressive Restructuring | +1.4% | +4 HP |
| energy | The Succession Plan | Nepotism Hire | +5.9% | +15 HP |
| ai | The Networking Gala | Work the Room | +7.8% | +20 HP |
| energy | Regulatory Audit (energy) | Bribe the Inspector | +1.3% | +3 HP |
| healthcare | The Layoffs | Protect Morale | +0.0% | already at/above target |
| ai | Regulatory Audit (AI) | Unshackle Protocol | +3.7% | +9 HP |